Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches deployed against a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, debate and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington operates on a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.
