Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
